Melbourne Cup 2011
· Expected forecast- light rain Sunday, fine Monday and Tuesday.
· Track to be in perfect condition, likely to be a dead track
Background;
151st running of the cup. Contrary to opinion, favourites often do win the cup with 32/150 favourites winning. Or close to 5:1. Which is pretty good for a handicap in large fields. As for the sex of the horse, don’t choose a mare/filly, only 16 of the 150 races have been won by a female 1:10, and 3 of those were the great mare (Makybe Diva). This answers the anomaly that 5 of the last 111 winners have been mares. No mare won between 1965-1988
Weight generally doesn’t destroy a horses chances of winning, with the distribution of winners and weights being very random. Although using current weights range 27 of 116 horses have won with greater than 55kg’s (around 1 in 5), 89 of 116 have won with less than 54.5kgs (around 4/5). Although it is possible that there have been many more runners under 55kgs than over, which negates this point slightly.
For those that are superstitious, 89 winners have had a single word name (i.e. Americain), horse colour is around equal to the number of horses of that colour that run (i.e. 34 chestnuts, 6 greys, 66 bays and 3 black horses, 35 brown).
Those that love Caulfield Cup winners, the double has only been done 11 times, and hasn’t been done for a decade, although occurred 3 times in the 90’s.
Only 4 horses in the last 18 were unplaced in their previous start, 11 of 18 won the start prior.
Age is a factor, only 12 have won the race being aged 7yo or greater (although not many would race above this age), only 7 4 year olds have won over the last 27 years, and I’d doubt a three year old would have won in this period.
OF all the main races, only the Geelong Cup has served up more than 1 winner in the last 10 years.
Most winners come from behind the pace, so have no concern for the first 2500m if your horse is running worse than mid-field. Recent history shows from there it is a better chance than the horses in front of it.
How the race will be run;
Jukebox Jury is a class International stayer, and has won the majority of its races from the front, stretches them out, and then fights them off to the line. I don’t expect the tactics will be any different, will try and lead from start to finish. This doesn’t help the sit and sprinters, so all those younf horses, 4 and 5 yr olds with the first start at this distance are going to blow. So it makes it a tough race to tip, as recent Australian form counts for very little if the race turns into a real staying test, as the plodders don’t generally win 2400’s. This is where some of the good staying Internationals will come to the fore. Have tried to compare International form with local form in this, and have put a bias in for a really fast run staying race. Enjoy.
Summary
Position |
|
|
|
1 | Jukebox Jury | 13 | Fox Hunt. |
2 | Americain | 14 | Niwot |
3 | Mourayan | 15 | Older than Time |
4 | Lucas Cranach | 16 | Unusual Suspect |
5 | Tullamore | 17 | The Verminator |
6 | Manighar. | 18 | Precedence. |
7 | At First Sight | 19 | Shamrocker |
8 | Glass Harmonium. | 20 | Hawk Island. |
9 | Dunaden. | 21 | Illo |
10 | Red Caudeaux | 22 | Moyenne Cornish. |
11 | Lost in the Moment. | 23 | Saptapadi |
12 | Drunken Sailor | 24 | Modun |
Runners
1. Americain- Horse speaks for itself. Winner last year ahead of top rated stallion ‘So You Think’. Lightly raced for the past 12 months, with six starts since last years Melbourne Cup. In peak condition with a solid win ahead of in-form Tullamore. Only (very) minor query, is the horse now being a 7yr old and carrying 58kg’s (up from 54.5kg last year). Won on the slow last year, but can handle any track. Highest Internationally rated horse, barrier 15 shouldn’t hurt, with the champ racing mid field one of the fence, won’t get into a sprint war early, will settle behind the pace and find a spot, and attack them late. Of group races, placed 13 of 23 starts with 8 wins.
Clearly the horse to beat, but 7yr old with the top weight, and I think it won’t quite get there. Position 2nd.
2. Jukebox Jury. Grp 1 Irish St Leger winner early Sept. Placed 12 from 18 group races with 8 wins. Won last two starts, but you have to query a horse that does no Australian Preparation. Has it settled, did it handle the trip? Highly rated International Galloper. Has had the wood on Dunaden, Manighar, Americain in International races.
Highly rated, but hard to win this off no races down under. Will go out hard and try and win from start to finish. Position 1st.
3. Dunaden. Has run 8 places from 8 group races with 3 wins. Is only an average prize money runner, in that its group places have not been in quality company. 1/3rd of its career prizemoney has been in the Geelong Cup. Don’t rate Dunaden as highly as other previous Geelong Cup runners.
Be careful of Geelong Cup form. Below results from Melbourne Cup runners who have won the Geelong Cup.
| Geelong Cup Winner | Melbourne Cup Place |
2011 | | ?? |
2010 | Americain [6] | Winner |
2009 | | 14th |
2008 | | 2nd |
2006 | Mandela | 13th |
2005 | | 2nd |
2004 | Pacific Dancer | 21st |
2002 | | winner |
Not up to this, has barely raced in group 1 company, with the Geelong Cup being the highlight of the horses career. As a 6 year old, you’d hope that the horse had done more than it has up until now. Has been well covered by Manighar and Jukebox Jury overseas, Will finish mid field. Position 9th.
4. Drunken Sailor. Along with Dunaden, this horse is not a champion International. A 7yr old with middle of the road group wins, with no group 1 success. 7 from 12 group places with 3 wins. Luca Cumani is a champion trainer, and is experienced with this race, and has been unlucky with two seconds (Purple Moon and Bauer), knows the type of horse to bring to this race, this horse has 5 starts for 1:2:0 over the distance and that is why it is here. Owned by the Simon O’Donnell group, so may have been purchased a long time back with a view to this race. Last start 7th doesn’t auger well for a win here. And wasn’t flashing home in the Caulfield Cup, which is what you would expect to win this. Damien Oliver likely to be picked for the better Cumani runner.
Wasn’t up to these last year and didn’t get a run, did beat JukeBox Jury in July, but with Oliver on the other runner, I don’t expect the horse to win, not after an average run in the Caulfield Cup. Passed a couple of runners on the way home but nothing special, will appreciate the 3200 Position 12th
5. Glass Harmonium. Mackinnon hasn’t been the best lead up race for the Melbourne Cup in recent years, although the two Cummings winners Rogan Josh (1999) and Let’s Elope (1991) showed a great effort to back up three days later. So You Think streeted them last year, and may have been unlucky last year, with the jockey going a bit early and setting it up for Americain. Glass Harmonium is terrible at the barrier, and with Damien Oliver on the Cumani horse, will make it a difficult task for Lisa Cropp to get right, having not raced on the horse since mid September. Started to get tired toward the end of the Mackinnon, and hasn’t won over 2200m, possibly due to it being so stirred up before the start of the race. Did the same on Cox Plate day and subsequently failed. High rated horse and if it settled will run in the top 6.
Champion Queensland horse having a stellar spring, but just gets too stirred up. Lisa Cropp will have a difficult time getting the horse to the barrier, and then will have even more trouble getting the horse loaded. The horse will burn too much energy pre race, which won’t help it. Also did Oliver get off due to loyalty to Cumani? Or does he believe Manighar is a better bet? Good horse but will beat itself. Oliver said it was only a 2000m runner after the Mackinnon, it raced on the speed, because it would be too stirry and would pull its head off, tired on the line over 2000m. Position 8th.
6. Manighar. Has been tested against the best in the world and generally has been there abouts without a large level of success. Good third behind an in form zipping in the Sandown Classic last year, was it’s first real success down under. A fast finishing 4th in the Caulfield Cup, has put Manighar in the mix. Damien Oliver coming of Glass Harmonium to ride, and the Cumani team would likely to have left it in England, if they didn’t give it a chance. Secondly, they have chosen Oliver for Manighar over a ride in Drunken Sailor. Ran past quite a few for a seventh last year on a slow 6. Might prefer the dead track. Hasn’t won for two years, but has been in the mix in plenty of group races over this period.
Manighar is a proven group staying horse, is hitting form and has proven it is up to these with 2 OK runs in the Caulfield Cup, an OK run in last years Melbourne Cup and a good 3rd behind Zipping. I like Manighars prospects and think this year Manighar will finish top 6, there’s a reason why Damien Oliver decided to get back on board. Position 6th.
7. Unusual Suspect. This is an Unusual nomination for the Cup, and perhaps the VRC’s attempt to get more USA runners in the cup. Only 2 runners 8yrs or older have won the cup. Has shown only fair form in 3 starts on Aus soil with an early September G2 4th whilst local runners were just getting started. A weak group 1 in LA this time last year and a 2nd in the California Cup are its claims to fame as a 7 year old. Has barely raced on anything but a hard track, and won’t handle a dead.
This is a handicappers mistake under VRC pressure. How can Bauer not get a start being in form and flying home in the Geelong Cup after the closest 2nd in the history of the race, and this 8 yr old makes the cut with no form. No wins over 2400m. Position 16th
8. Fox Hunt. Lightly raced 5 year old, having a purple patch in Europe. Recent 3 races include a Grp3 Win and a Grp 4 fourth. OK form, but travelling half way around the world, with a 45 day break and getting acclimatised, getting through quarantine, and try and win this first up is a tough ask. Average prize winnings of 10K per race, is only around Gr3 or worse class.
OK Europe form, but is only fair class horse. Also prefer to see s horse do an Australian prep prior. Can you win a 3200m after 45 days spell? And no guarantees it has acclimatised. Excellent third against lost in the moment over 3200m. Position 13th
9. Lucas Cranach
One of the better Internationals, lightly raced and good success from its 10 starts. I believe Lee Freedman has accompanied the horse here, after training it for a period in the UK before the trip. On that information, I reasonably think the horse will go well. A strong 5th in the Caulfield Cup, after having no luck and getting stuck wide, first up, was a good effort and will be better for the run. Distance is the test, no wins over 2400m and no 3200 starts. No problems the softish track.
For me this runner finishes 6th. Query is the distance, but they wouldn’t bring it if they didn’t think it could handle the distance. Ran well at Caulfield with a wide run and no luck, Southern Speed covered 40m less than it in the run. I think it will be in the mix with a hundred to go and will die on its run late. Position 4th.
10. Mourayan
Another Lloyd Williams import. 3rd in the Irish Derby in our summer 2009. Lloyd brings it home, takes a while to settle with an average performance last Spring, followed up with a good Autumn, coming 2nd in the BMW Grp1 in Sydney in the Autumn. Mourayan has gone from strength to strength this spring, and is peaking at the right time. Kept coming against Glass Harmonium in the Mackinnon. Has won over 2500 and is placed over 2 miles.
Lloyd knows how to train staying horses and has searched the globe for winners of this event. This horse is a true stayer and was still coming in the Mackinnon. Is peaking at the right time, and is well placed for this. Races forward, so will need to get forward for barrier 14, so will spend some gas early to get a spot. May decide to slot in mid field, and then move up on them from perhaps the 1400m. Will stay more than sprint. Nic Hall is the stable’s Senior jockey, and Lloyd may have had greater faith in ‘At First Sight’. Mourayan may have surprised, and it’s too late to swap jockeys, with Hugh Bowman being on this horse since August. Position 3rd.
11. Precedence. Has had mixed form for a number of years. Takes a long time to get going, and then has some success. Has run 1st or second in a group or listed race each prep. Has had poor form this prep, but that is the master trainers way, shows nothing and out of nowhere Bart produces something that just finds the line. Precedence won over 2800 as a three year old, and got roughed up in this race last year in a tough run. Ran well in the Australia Cup for a solid fifth.
Impossible to pick, but you can’t leave it out. Absolutely no form, but Bart never brings them here in form. Will finish first or last. Raced well in the Mackinnon, didn’t do much work, but didn’t knock up, makes you think the jockey just ran it around for the practice. Had more in the tank. Position 18th.
12. Red Caudeaux Another one of these Internationals, that is going to try and nail this as a first start. Not good. Ran a great race in the Irish St Leger, third aa length behind Jukebox Jury. In that race the horse settled well, and then worked to the line strong, like a good stayer. This will be a similar run race, as Jukebox Jury is going to try and jump and lead the whole way and turn this into a true staying race.
Will finish better than mid field but won’t be in the mix. Prefer other Internationals, but it’s third behind Jukebox Jury was a good run, I don’t think the horse will be at its best first up, and 24 horses is a lot more difficult than that race against 6. Position 10th.
13. Hawk Island. This is the genuine ‘mud runner’ of the field. It has had 10 wins, 6 on a heavy track and 2 on a slow. Won’t win on a dead track. This horse is only average, won 4 straight this time last year, but guess what? All on slow tracks. A second in the Metropolitan G1 4 weeks ago, but the others in that field haven’t kicked on since, beat Tullamore early in its prep in a group 2 and failed in the Caulfield Cup.
This is ambitious for the horse, if we got a freak storm on the day then it comes into contention, but we won’t position 20th.
14. Illo Lightly raced German?? stayer that performed well behind Americain on Cox Plate day. That’s all we know. Hard to fault that run, and it has difficult form to compare as hasn’t raced against any of these.
Hasn’t won past 2400 and that is the furthest it has ever run. Does it win second up at its first start the distance? At my own peril with the master trainer I am going to say no. Can’t find any reason other than the trainer, and a good third behind Americain. Can’t have it. Position 21st
15. Lost in the Moment. On form it’s difficult to understand why this horse is here, but do yourself a favour and ‘youtube’ the 2011 Goodwood Cup G2. Lost in the moment, has the worst run of everything in the race, gets checked 2-3 times trying to get out, and then comes flying home to get beaten in the tightest of photo’s. That was a 3200m race, and the horse had plenty left at the line. On that form will be in the mix. It beat Red Caudeaux, Manighar, and fox hunt (just) in that run.
Great run in the GoodWood and I think that is also why fox hunt is here with an excellent run. No Superstars in that race, but this horse will run the trip easily. Will go ok due to the form over 3200m position 11th.
16. Modun Has got no claims in this. Lightly raced Godolphin horse that has been in the mix with a couple of the weaker runners in this field. Hasn’t raced over this distance and will find this difficult.
Isn’t up to this. Possibly came over to keep the other Godolphin horse company, has only raced and won 1 group race in its career. Position 24th.
17. At First Sight. Galileo sired runner up in the Epsom Derby in English Summer (our winter) last year. Second behind the inform December Draw second up this prep, hit some trouble(illness) before resuling at Bendigo, where the horse made up 12 lengths to finish second behind stablemate Tanby, who had an easier rails run. One of a new crop of Lloyd Williams runners all purchased from England that include, Midas Touch, Tanby and this horse. Is possibly the best of them.
I had this horse pegged to win this race when I studied them in August, the illness upsetting the preparation has me concerned and then the big run at Bendigo had me excited again. On reflection the horse died on its run late and didn’t run that race right out, yet the 12 length come from behind was very ‘Efficient esk....’ when Efficient beat Purple Moon in this. I’m sitting on the fence on this horse now. First run the trip, interrupted prep makes me think it won’t nail this race this year, perhaps next. Also didn’t like the race by stablemate Midas Touch in the Mackinnon, made me think the stable hasn’t quite nailed the preparation of these horses this year. If it does upset them I win 10K (took it at 200:1 for $50). Jukebox Jury will stretch them out aand turn this into a real staying test, and that won’t help At First Sight. Position 7th
18. Moyenne Cornish. Not one of the better Internationals. Lucky to get a start for mine.
Good third in the Herbert Power behind two horses that didn’t get a start here, and wins over 2800 in a weak race in England. Prefer others. Position 22nd.
19. Saptapadi. Another horse that shouldn’t have got a start. Hasn’t won a group or listed race.
Has got nothing to offer this race, go home. Last. Position 23rd.
20. Shamrocker Has disappointed this prepa and lost a lot of people a lot of money. An out and out champion as a 3yr old, that hasn’t lifted the required level in open company. First start over 2miles after having success at 2400m .
I have stuck with Shamrocker all year, thinking that a return to form is imminent. 4 year old first start over the distance are of concern, and JJukebox Jury is not going to make this a sit and sprint race. Will be one of the hardest Cups to win of all time, with whichever plodder gets to the line best. I think the distance is the concern for the out of form Shamrocker, and nothing she has showed me this spring points to a win here. Position 19th
21. The Verminator In form horse sired by the 1994 Cup Winner Juene, itself aa mud runner. The Verminator has good form with the Group 1 Metropolitan, but only average form compared to this field. Just like Juene when it won at 16:1, the horse is not expected to win, but conncections would be giving themselves as sneaky chance. First start the distance.
Concerned that the Sydney form will translate down here. A good freshen up in the Mackinnon, should have the horse fit and ready to go, but good breeding and a weak group 1 in Sydney may not be enough to win this. Position 17th.
22. Tullamore The horse to watch. Plodded home very well in the Caulfield Cup , and will hit the 3200m well on that run. Also went well against Americain in the Moonnee Valley Cup. Meets Americain 5kg lighter in this, and this has been a training masterpiece to sneak this horse into this race at 52kg in the current form. For me difficult to beat.
From what I have seen Tullamore will run this race out well, and the light weight, will really come to the fore late. The light weight runner for me. Position 5th.
23. Niwot Has won over two miles, albeit in a weaker grade. Wins on Saturday to sneak in, but that was a group 3, and the second horse Macedonian had been disappointing all spring, so that form doesn’t stack well against these. Light weight will help, and sired by Galileo, so is bred for this.
Horse has peaked at the right time, and I cleaned them out on this thing Saturday, as it likes the cut out of the ground. Flemington drains well and I expect the track to firm up by race time, which will hurt the chances of the mud larks. I think Niwot will get shown by the better class horses in this field. Position 14th.
24. Older than Time I would be very concerned about the history of the Smith/Waterhouse connection in this industry, and the ability of Gai to get two runners in with 2 of the bottom 3 weights. Very clever, or did a brown paper bag change hands. A second in the Sydney Cup over 3200M in the heavy is good form for this, but that was in April and the horse has shown nothing since. The horse only carried 53.5kg that day. Although 51kg is a gift in this for a horse that can run 3200 and in a hard run race.
Expect it to runa sneaky race, a hard run race this year, reminiscent of the Aiden O’Brien Septimus run, except this year it will be JukeBox Jury trying to lead from start to finish. The weight will be a gift toward the end and if it can plod home it could finish top 6. Position 15th.
